Reproduced

More >>
Reproduced
This is an extremely high quality of posted, reportedly, this lecture is March 28 the day click on microblogging Good afternoon everyone: My topic is "abandoned fantasy chief keef finally rich mixtape to face reality." The topic chosen mainly because of market indices performed well the first three months, investors may have some unrealistic, including chief keef finally rich mixtape for economic growth bottomed out, the policy adjustment is expected to produce a greater amount of fantasy. I think that along with the illusion of this rising generation process, the actual market situation may be to imagine a far cry. Investors set aside imagine what the actual situation is exactly what it was like, I'm here to tell you about. Overall, include the following elements: 1, what the market and we are concerned about what is? 2, the end of last year, we are relatively optimistic about the market, at that time the market will usher in a wave rally judge, and now that wave rally in what kind of situation? 3, on the earnings improvement, the market is expected chief keef finally rich mixtape before the comparison with the reality of the situation. 4. The impact of institutional reform. 5, we conclude and sector allocation views. (A) We all need to focus on any point in time things: one, corporate profits. 2, the market interest rate (risk-free rate of return). chief keef finally rich mixtape 3, risk appetite. Many investors would like to discuss when the stock market and the stock market linked to macroeconomic, (a) "For example, some people because of optimistic about China's economic growth, so optimistic about China's stock market performance." This view is not correct when they When will encounter barriers to investment, the economy and the stock market is in fact there is a relationship, but I do not know the relationship chief keef finally rich mixtape between them in the end what it was like. To put it simply chief keef finally rich mixtape decided to share the ups and downs of the factors in this one, and no economic growth, economic growth and the stock price is the role played by affecting corporate profits, so the determinants of stock prices is the profitability of the business. Such as economic growth and corporate earnings is consistent, then the promotion of economic growth chief keef finally rich mixtape will drive corporate earnings rise, while promoting the share price rise. If there is no relationship between the two, and that is no relationship. Therefore, economic growth is not a direct factor pushing stock prices. (B) "Some investors are optimistic chief keef finally rich mixtape about the M1, M2 growth rate to bottom out and then rebound, or focus only on credit, a credit put out, then the stock market changed for the better." Decision under which the stock price factors that thinking there is no formula for M1, M2, foreign exchange and new credit it? The answer is a no, these are thus have an effect on stock prices by market interest rates, so we study M1, M2, foreign exchange as well as all the new credit is to study the market interest rates. (C) "Some people will say that some institutional changes, including the President, the Prime Minister's speech, etc., will affect the performance of the stock price." And we think that these are just the influence of risk appetite, which further impact on the share price. So simply, these are the DDM model three important factors, I just expanded from a micro perspective to macro perspective on the problem, so we need to be concerned about corporate earnings, market interest rates and the risk appetite of these three change. Late last year we judge the market will turn a good logic there are two points: the market rate + risk appetite. We judge the market interest rates will change for the better logic is derived from interest rates prevailing in the high-order position, is experiencing a downward inflection point, the first three months of the performance level of interest rates also verified before we judge, interest rates appear a substantial decline, chief keef finally rich mixtape this is the first important factor pushing stock prices. In addition, risk appetite at the end in a very low level, since the second half of last year, suffered chief keef finally rich mixtape the impact of the European debt crisis, global investors chief keef finally rich mixtape are very risk-averse, so they will sell off risky assets. And how to do risk appetite metrics, we think we can refer to junk bond market debt spreads with high credit rating bonds between. When a time of low market risk appetite (risk-averse investors), investors will invest in bonds, Treasury rates will fall, while the opposite junk bond interest rates will be very high, with the spread between the two will be The expanded. Conversely, when the market risk preference, investors will sell bonds, then invest in junk bonds, then the interest rates of government bonds will be lifted, garbage bond yields fell, the two will be narrowed spreads, which is the risk appetite change. Because we believe that the European debt crisis last year, it led to a global risk appetite is very low, so it will be toward the mean reversion, which will drive the prices of all risky assets, including stocks and junk bonds, constitute a positive good for the stock market. (The second important factor pushing the market rally), although corporate earnings from the fourth quarter of last year has become very bad, but this factor in the context of the time is not very important, chief keef finally rich mixtape because after the stock market decline has price- earnings in, and the angle of the end of last year stood all economists forecast that inflation will bottom out this year, while corporate earnings growth will hit the bottom, so if met will bottom out after two quarters, the market ahead of a quarter start layout is no problem. Three factors that affect stock prices in the two factors favorable chief keef finally rich mixtape to the stock market, without considering other factors, then the stock market will usher in a natural rebound. (B) Now we can look to rebound to the current stage of these factors are in what state. First, we observe the global risk-free rate of return (market rate): developed in the US and Germany, the United States since the last adjustment Standard & Poor's rating kept interest rates began to decline, the lowest chief keef finally rich mixtape reach 1.9 percent, is now beginning to rebound; Germany is due to the European debt crisis last year had a substantial upward, after they continue down, now also reached a very low level and then began to rebound. So I think the risk-free rate of decline in low-risk countries has come to an end. Some investors believe that the introduction of QE3 imminent US long-term bond yields chief keef finally rich mixtape in the low level of control, but I think that even if the United States issued a QE3, long-term bond interest rates will not fall down again, the reason is that when interest rates reached 1.9% of time, if QE3 is functional, then the whole economy will get better, then inflation expectations will rise, corporate ROE will rise, then what other people to lend you money, risk-free rate to be reduced to 1.9% of it Therefore, chief keef finally rich mixtape the interest rate will be up; if QE3 does not work, launch QE3 US economy is still sluggish, investors will sell dollars and US Treasury bonds, capital flight occurs, then the risk-free rate of return will still rise, so the German-American countries The long bond yields have started to rebound a. Goldman Sachs recently had a view of the first phrase says, "US Treasury bonds bull market is facing the end of three decades," which I very much agree with, but the last part says, "the stock market is facing a golden opportunity." This is purely my opinion gab. Next we observe a high risk country last year, we are very worried for Italy, its bond yields soared, the 10-year bond yields even more than 8%, and now has dropped to 4.7 percent, interest chief keef finally rich mixtape rates in the debt crisis and then back to the historical average. 2-year yields close to 8 percent had the highest, but now only 2%, so the problem of Italy before the market has no imagination so bad. The actual situation is that the change in interest rate volatility is the risk appetite was caused by fluctuations in its economic fundamentals, and this contact is far everyone thought it was close, after the change in risk appetite eventually return to the historical chief keef finally rich mixtape average, so for these countries for interest rates will not decline further. On risk appetite, chief keef finally rich mixtape fear and fanaticism we know, is not sustainable, so it will definitely return, it is a mean in the long run. Another can be seen from three o'clock, chief keef finally rich mixtape a bottom-up value investors can succeed. Only opportunists will care about these issues, the simple interest rate and market risk appetite is neutral in the long run, it is only one factor that really works is that corporate profits. But since we are speculators, the band needs to be done, it will focus on market interest rates and risk appetite, as these factors will provide short-term stock a huge swing up and down, but in the long run these two factors are neutral . In all cases occurred in China and abroad are currently chief keef finally rich mixtape no differences. First of risk appetite, previously had a very big rise and then fall, corresponding to the stock market chief keef finally rich mixtape crash once, and then rebound. Last September, after junk bonds plunged, bonds do not fall, so keep the expansion in spreads, declining risk appetite. Then in January this year after soaring junk bonds, government bonds do not rise, spreads narrowed, which is typical rise in risk appetite, so a lot of black seven slots risk assets began to rise, which is the principle of its rebound. The only difference is that with overseas chief keef finally rich mixtape markets than three months later, in October last year, Europe saw risk appetite is low, while China was bottoming out in January, but the logic is exactly the same level. Look at the risk-free rate of return, China and the United States chief keef finally rich mixtape is very close bond yields, bill discounting chief keef finally rich mixtape and money market interest rates were to return to a normal level, so we can see the world's stock markets are rising, whether economic growth is 8% , 6% or 0% of the country all are up, and on the rise in terms of economic growth and there is no relationship, because the increase was not due to come from corporate profits, but all the state funds interest rates are on the decline, risk appetite levels rise again. Increase the number and depth of relevant before digging, dig deep pit on the rise and more shallow dug it up for less. So the basic phenomena we see on this year's global stock market did not fall, but the pit of the debt crisis has now almost all filled up, the current chief keef finally rich mixtape global stock market is also not how up because of global companies are not profitable , or that the Chinese chief keef finally rich mixtape stock market is even more badly than other countries in terms of the whole pattern is exactly the same. But there are special circumstances, such as the Nasdaq and S & P's index hit a new high, although the risk appetite and interest rate are the same, it is more of a thing called profit. Specifically, the "Apple" company promoted the Nasdaq and S & P index hit a new high, now Apple's market capitalization accounted for 4% of the total market capitalization of US stock, along with the rise of Apple's market value, led the Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's index of super profits this factor played a role, great business will create great exponent. Determinants (three) corporate chief keef finally rich mixtape earnings have two points: one, capacity utilization 2. Product chief keef finally rich mixtape prices. Expand a business capacity utilization, product prices rise, corporate profits chief keef finally rich mixtape will be changed for the better, otherwise it will deteriorate. We observed that China's economic growth rate from 11% down to 8%, capacity utilization and product prices have declined, so the profit decline is not surprising. So the US economy chief keef finally rich mixtape rebounded from 2% to 2.2%, corporate profitability and capacity utilization along with the price rise is not surprising double. chief keef finally rich mixtape So you can clearly reflect the profitability of the business is absolutely nothing to do with economic growth, change and economic growth are closely linked. China's stock market index will usher in a big opportunity, we must first observe whether chief keef finally rich mixtape Chinese corporate earnings chief keef finally rich mixtape will bottom out, followed by China will see great companies out there, and if not, then do not imagine 3,000 points or 6,000 points arrived. Current Chinese corporate earnings and the decrease in 2008 is the same, straight down, so that the status quo since corporate profits, stock difference also normal, so the decline in corporate profits are weaker than China's stock market is the most important reason for foreign . The reason for the poor Chinese corporate chief keef finally rich mixtape profits was mainly because the vast majority of listed companies are heavy assets, corporate assets are very worried about the heavy decline in capacity utilization, such as automobile industry, if the capacity utilization rate of more than 90%, even BYD can make big money, but if capacity utilization of 70%, the Toyota had to lose money, chief keef finally rich mixtape so the only secret is capacity utilization. At present, Chinese enterprises are facing a big problem is the capacity chief keef finally rich mixtape utilization seen a sharp decline in the present point in time, why profitability has become very important? Because economists predict chief keef finally rich mixtape that the economy will be in one, two bottom quarter corporate earnings growth bottomed out, if investors believe that these are true, then adjusted to almost come to an end now, and not wait until April of . But if you do not believe it means to adjust this thing off the mark, at least I do not believe that is the beginning of the year because of all the economists in the description of this year's economic situation, the basic everyone chief keef finally rich mixtape agrees that the economy will bottom out, but see roughly divided between the end of the process point of view, one group called natural bottom, because the entire depreciation in sales accounted for the low, it will automatically update into the production cycle, and then superimposed restocking, two things can naturally see the economy end. Another school of thought need to rely on the power of government, so if the economic chief keef finally rich mixtape growth rate to fall down, one hand the government, the economy bottomed out. But for now, the two factions of view are not tricky, first update from the production cycle, cyclical sectors (manufacturing) of investment growth has been very low, and there is no sign of the rise. I think that this is due to the economy caused chief keef finally rich mixtape by the structural adjustment because, for example ,, the steel industry has 700 million tons of production capacity, and can not re-enter a new period in which the capacity is not possible then from the 700 million tons of steel expansion up to 1.4 billion chief keef finally rich mixtape tons. We now have reached 0.6 tons of steel per capita, this thing has got to head, and will not be a simple cycle of cycled. Secondly, with regard to the government bailout, at least so far the government has not implemented any measures for the economic downturn, since last year, everyone in predicting chief keef finally rich mixtape credit, is based on a simple cycle regularity, China's economy which has a very important rule called credit counter-cyclical, that all economic bad times the size of credit on large, otherwise the credit scale is small. This is not the same with the world, the world is procyclical, positive chief keef finally rich mixtape correlation between the size of the economy and the credit links. China's counter-cyclical is because China's system and others do not like, because every time the economy is bad government regulation is necessary to expand the size of credit, it will form a counter-cyclical, so standing on the last point that all institutions are basically think this year will be relatively large size of credit, because the economy is not good this year. The results in the past three months, the whole of the credit scale and not up, because the NDRC forget investment projects this year, so commercial banks do not know who threw the credit, I do not know who to lend money. So while we see a small scale credit, on the one hand to see interest chief keef finally rich mixtape rates go down, indicating that the weak demand, this is the biggest problem. So we have to look after April, the NDRC will not go to the project yet, this is not by its decision, the matter was decided by the Politburo. But I think the probability is relatively small, because after a few times to get past, they think the cost is too high, at 09, 10 years out of 400,500 projects NDRC down, dig the country out of money, and who on the inside make money at it, Sany earn money, ROE ran to the 50% who lost money on the inside of it, cast high-speed rail and highway who lost money because ROE is 0% or negative, so simple to NDRC said that the money directly to the Sany. Therefore, the NDRC also realized that this approach is not feasible, is unlikely to continue to engage in long-term. Investment right now and the early years of the investment chief keef finally rich mixtape has been very different, because the project before investing in at least 20-30% of the ROE, the ability to self-loop, cast down their own money, repayment. Now there is no such projects, because China's infrastructure has entered saturation, investment in similar projects